USPP
Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics
Putting the Candidates on the Couch
By Aubrey Immelman
Special to MSNBC
November 3, 2000
As voters take their final measure of the
presidential candidates, a quick reality check may be in order: unanticipated events can
quickly overtake campaign promises, policies, and positions. Case in point: The revelation
that George W. Bush pleaded guilty to driving under the influence of alcohol in 1976.
Bush’s handling of the drunken driving issue will offer skeptical voters ample
opportunity in the next few days to resolve pressing questions about the Texas
governor’s fitness to lead the nation.
But the Bush revelations highlight something that political psychology
has known for some time: Issues, policies, and substance are important, but they have
their limits. Voters also want clues to a candidate’s character, integrity, and his
ability to cope with crisis. Substance matters, but in the long run, a candidate’s
personal style also sheds considerable light on what kind of leader he will be.
Style and Substance
Style is important because it is the most easily discernible, external mark
of character and personality. It’s the one thing that a candidate cannot spin—at
least not for any length of time. Personality is the key to knowing how that candidate
will act, think, and relate to others now and in the future, on the campaign trail and at
the pinnacle of political power, in good times and in bad.
The good news for voters is that political psychology has made great
strides in the past few decades, developing methodologies for assessing the personalities
of political leaders on the basis of public records. This made it possible for President
Carter in 1978 to be briefed on the personalities of Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin in
preparation for the peace negotiations that led to the Camp David agreement, and for
President Bush to be briefed on Saddam Hussein’s personality prior to the 1991 Gulf
War.
Putting the Candidates on the Couch
The following analysis is the culmination of a three-year research
project to assess the personalities of the 2000 presidential candidates, and the
leadership and policy implications of their profiles. The personality profiles of the
Democratic and Republican nominees, like their policy positions, are now a matter of
public record.
George W. Bush, in a word, is an extrovert—outgoing and
gregarious. Al Gore is introverted and conscientious. These empirically established
personality patterns are affirmed by the candidates themselves and by their campaigns.
In 1994, Bush told the Miami Herald’s Tom Fiedler, "When your
name is George Bush, with the kind of personality I have, which is a very engaging
personality, at least outgoing, in which my job is to sell tickets to baseball games,
you’re a public person."
And in his acceptance speech at this summer’s Democratic National
Convention, the introverted, conscientious Gore acknowledged that although he may not be
America’s most engaging politician, he is his own man and will work diligently for
the American people. As Gore supporter Paul Begala recently told Tim Russert on NBC’s
"Meet the Press," it’s hard for the vice president to show the same charm
as Bush, "because he’s a more reserved person, frankly, than the governor
is."
The highly distinctive personality patterns of the two candidates have
important political implications. A Gore presidency will be vastly different from a Bush
presidency in terms of leadership style and policy preferences, irrespective of the
candidates’ ideological differences. Following is a small sampling.
Conscientious Al
Conscientious personalities, despite their seeming self-righteousness,
typically follow regulations closely, are meticulous in fulfilling obligations, and are
generally responsible, reliable, proper, prudent, self-disciplined, and restrained. They
rank foremost among personality types with respect to moral rectitude and personal
integrity.
On the downside, highly conscientious, dutiful personalities such as
Gore are their own worst enemies: prone to bouts of self-doubt over perceived shortcomings
or failure to live up to self-imposed, exacting standards of perfection. Gore’s
habitual overstatement of fact, penchant for hyperbole, and tendency to garnish the truth
with self-serving affectations should be seen in this light—as pure personal folly
and not an expression of fundamental mendacity or a fatal flaw of character.
Introverted political candidates have fared poorly since the advent of
television, which tends to favor polished, socially poised personalities such as Kennedy,
Reagan, and Clinton. In the limelight, the social reserve of introverts is perceived as
social indifference and a lack of empathy, which tends to elicit a reciprocal reaction in
voters. Were it not for this disquieting trend in modern presidential politics, Gore would
have been comfortably ahead of Bush in the polls.
A Gore Presidency
What are the presidential prospects for Gore? As a conscientious personality,
he will be cautious, keep himself thoroughly informed, weigh the long-term consequences of
his policy judgments, exhibit a mastery of policy details, and understand the implications
of his decisions. His nose-to-the-grindstone diligence and meticulous attention to
minutiae will stand him in good stead with respect to policy formulation and the mechanics
of governing. But at the same time, these attributes may serve as an impediment to forging
the political relationships crucial for implementing and institutionalizing his policy
initiatives in a bipartisan arena.
Gore’s introversion will result in a public perception of a
president who is aloof, and could render a Gore presidency distinctly uncharismatic and
possibly unpopular. He is unlikely to remain closely in touch with the public mood or to
use rhetoric effectively to mobilize popular support.
In the arena of foreign policy, Gore will seek to reshape the world
order in accordance with his personal vision, invoke principles to impose solutions, and
rely on formal structures and institutions to keep disruptive forces in check. The tone of
his rhetoric will likely be moralizing and didactic, backed by a willingness to use
military intervention as an instrument of foreign policy.
George W. Bush, Extravert
News of George W. Bush’s 1976 drunken driving arrest offers little new
information about the candidate. Mostly, it reinforces the suspicion that Bush he been
less than candid in acknowledging past problems with substance use. But it comes as no
surprise. It has already been widely reported that the 26-year-old George W. once drove
drunk with his 15-year-old brother Marvin, hit a neighbor’s garbage can, and then
taunted his father when confronted, "You wanna go mano à mano right
here?"
My own study of Bush’s personality type—first presented last
summer at the annual scientific meeting of the International Society of Political
Psychology—reveals what I described then as "a penchant for momentary
excitements, fleeting adventures, and short-sighted hedonism." In positions of
leadership, extraverts like Bush may be prone to scandal, predisposed to reckless,
imprudent behaviors, and inclined to make spur-of-the-moment decisions without carefully
considering alternatives.
The good news for Bush and for Bush supporters is that the Republican
nominee’s 14-year abstinence from alcohol, in conjunction with increasing maturity,
goes a long way toward smoothing the rougher edges of his outgoing, adventurous
personality pattern.
Moreover, outgoing leaders characteristically are confident in their
social abilities, skilled in the art of social influence, and have an engaging personal
style that tends to make people like them and overlook their gaffes and foibles. Thus, the
political implication is that Bush will weather this storm and will be forgiven, as was
another flawed but likable extravert, Bill Clinton.
A Bush Presidency
What kind of leader will George W. Bush be? Outgoing personalities generally
are likeable, charming, and congenial, but may tend to be impulsive, distractible, and
superficial. A lack of attention to detail, short attention span, and susceptibility to
boredom may pose an impediment to presidential performance.
As governor of Texas, Bush has proven himself adept at delegating the
more mundane aspects and minutiae of the day-to-day operation of his office. And as
president, his outgoing style could be instrumental in rallying, energizing, and
motivating critical constituencies in the quest to implement his policy objectives.
On a personal level he is likely to be skillful in retaining his
popularity and remain closely in touch with the mood of the public.
But in the realm of policy, Bush as president may fail to keep himself
thoroughly informed, falter with respect to depth of comprehension or understanding the
broader implications of his decisions, and force decisions to be made prematurely. Thus,
the quality of his policy advisers and political appointments is likely to be of pivotal
importance.
Bush’s outgoing personality also foreshadows his likely operating
style and role preference in foreign affairs, which is likely to be flexible, cooperative,
pragmatic, and conflict averse. It is significant that Bush’s campaign slogan,
"I’m a uniter, not a divider," is inherently rooted in his outgoing
personality. Thus, rather than containment, his primary foreign policy concern will be the
reconciliation of differences among nations and the resolution of international conflicts,
with a corresponding reluctance to use military force. Expect his foreign policy to depend
largely on delegation, diplomacy, and third-party mediation. His rhetoric typically will
be conciliatory, his interventions based on consensus building, and his personal political
style marked by a tendency to take a back seat in the policymaking process.
Reality Check
Granted, these personality profiles and their policy implications in some
ways may be at variance with the conventional wisdom. Nonetheless, they represent the
state of the art and science of political personality assessment and prediction of
presidential performance. In some respects the personality portraits are unflattering; in
others, they capture the candidates’ possibly unrecognized redeeming features.
Though he has often been typecast as lacking in character and
credibility, his personality profile suggests that the fundamentally honorable Gore,
quintessentially a man of integrity, may be one of the most misunderstood men in America.
As for George W. Bush, the redeeming feature of his personality profile is that what he
lacks in experience and intellectual capacity is offset—in sobriety—by
substantial social intelligence and that rare leadership quality that Oliver Wendell
Holmes, with reference to Franklin D. Roosevelt, called "a first-class
temperament."
When voters step into the voting booth on Tuesday, the choices they
make will have important and far-reaching consequences for the nation’s future. While
the personality profiles offered here are presented with a high degree of confidence,
their leadership and policy implications are somewhat more speculative.
Political psychology does not arrogate for itself the clairvoyant
claims of psychic pseudoscience. As an emerging discipline, it is not yet sufficiently
advanced to account for the multitude of factors that control political outcomes in an
uncertain, complex world.
On Nov. 7, Americans will take the measure of the men who would be
president. They will exercise their best personal judgment, and vote their
conscience—knowing that, ultimately, neither political psychology, nor political
pundits, nor the candidates themselves can offer absolute assurances that the man who
earns our vote will turn out to be the president we hope he’ll be.
* * *
Aubrey Immelman is a political psychologist and member of the governing council of the International Society of Political Psychology. He is a columnist for the St. Cloud Times and an associate professor of psychology at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict, Minn., where he directs the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics.
Note: This article was originally published on MSNBC.com and is reprinted here with permission.
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Last updated November 13, 2000